With confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally exceeding 1 million and more countries going into lockdown to slow the pandemic, the emerging question is: “When will this all end?” The answer depends in large part on uncertainties about the novel coronavirus that causes the disease, including whether you can get it more than once and how quickly the world’s scientists might produce a vaccine. The cost and benefits of a prolonged shutdown and what different countries can afford, from both an economic and political standpoint, are factors, too.
coronavirus when will it end

1. So how does this end?

There’s a consensus that the pandemic will only end with the establishment of so-called herd immunity. that happens when enough people during a community are shielded from a pathogen that it can’t take hold and dies out. There are two paths thereto outcome. One is immunization. Researchers would need to develop a vaccine that proves safe and effective against the coronavirus, and health authorities would need to catch on to a sufficient number of individuals . The second path to herd immunity is grimmer: It also can happen after an outsized portion of a community has been infected with a pathogen and develops resistance thereto that way.


2. How can we manage until then?

For many countries, the strategy is to lock down movement to dramatically slow the spread, closing businesses and schools, banning gatherings and keeping people reception . the thought is to stop an enormous burst of infections that overwhelms the medical system, causing excessive deaths as care is rationed. “Flattening the curve” staggers cases over a extended period of some time and buys authorities and health-care providers time to mobilize -- to make capacity for testing, for tracking down contacts of these who are infected, and for treating the sick, by expanding hospital facilities, including ventilators and intensive-care units.


3. When can restrictions loosen?


The public shouldn’t expect life to return to normal quickly. Lifting restrictions too early risks inviting a replacement spike. Authorities in China began to re-open the town of Wuhan, where the pandemic began, two months after it had been sealed from the planet , when transmission had virtually halted. But China’s measures were stricter than anywhere else thus far , and a minimum of one county has gone back to a lockdown. England’s deputy chief medic , Jenny Harries, said lockdown measures there got to last two, three or, ideally, up to 6 months. Annelies Wilder-Smith, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and medicine , recommends restrictions stay in situ until daily cases drop consistently over a minimum of fortnight .


4. Then what?

A road map authored by a gaggle of U.S. health specialists including former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb involves an intermediate stage during which schools and businesses would reopen but gatherings would still be limited. People would still be encouraged to stay at a distance from each other , and people at high risk would be advised to limit their time publicly . If cases begin to rise again, restrictions would be tightened. Their report, published by the pro-business American Enterprise Institute, is arguably more optimistic than the longer term envisioned by researchers at Imperial College London. Their models suggest that for a minimum of two-thirds of the time until herd immunity is established, all households would wish to scale back contact with schools, workplaces or the general public by 75%. In any case, the widespread availability of testing is vital during this stage. At the guts of the U.S. plan: a minimum of 750,000 tests per week.


5. How long will a vaccine take?

Dozens of companies and universities round the world are performing on it, but there’s no guarantee they're going to prevail. Vaccine development normally may be a long and sophisticated process that has years of testing to make sure shots are safe and effective. within the coronavirus fight, a number of the players aim to deliver a vaccine in 12 to 18 months, a very ambitious goal. also as using tried-and-true approaches, scientists are counting on new technologies, like people who add viral genetic material to human cells, inducing them to form proteins that spur an immune reaction . Some vaccine specialists believe governments, citizens and investors should temper their optimism. It’s not clear if the methods will work, that the timelines are going to be met or that companies are going to be ready to manufacture enough shots.